How far is each district from its 2030 housing target

Projects already filed, approved or permitted account for an estimated 106,742 completions by the end of 2030. Continuing each district’s 2023–2025 net filing pace would add approximately 31,462 more.

This is why timing matters. Of homes filed from 2010 through 2015, 63 percent were complete within five years and 77 percent within eight years. Filings since mid-2022 have moved faster than those from the years just before, but the five-year window is still shorter than it may appear.

A building with more than 200 units filed in mid-2026 has historically had about a 56 percent chance of completion by the end of 2030. If filed in mid-2027, that falls to 28 percent. If filed in mid-2028, it falls to 4 percent.

The City places districts into low-, medium- and high-growth groups based on housing growth during the preceding decade. It then applies minimum growth rates to each group. Targets in the 15 Limited Affordability Areas receive a further 25 percent multiplier.

The formula is designed to spread housing growth more widely across the city. It also produces the greatest departure from recent experience in the districts that have historically built the least.

The 20 low-growth districts carry a combined target of 113,005 homes after completing 13,252 from 2021 through 2025. Their target is 8.2 times expected completions. The 20 high-growth districts have a similar combined target, but it is 1.5 times expected completions.

This does not establish that the targets are too high or incorrectly distributed. It shows where meeting them would require the largest change from both the current pipeline and historical production.

The citywide total conceals very different district-level conditions. Lower Manhattan and Midtown already have enough activity to meet or exceed their targets, largely because of office conversions. Several Bronx districts are close to pace based on active projects and recent filings. Many low-growth districts would require a sharp break from anything they have delivered in the recent past.

For each district we estimate the net homes that will be complete between January 2026 and December 2030, then divide the City’s target by that number. A district is already in motion if its pipeline alone covers 80% of the target, on pace if the target is within 1.25× of expected completions, and unprecedented if the target is more than 3× expected completions and more than 3× its best five years since 2010. The rest need a step change.

The district tables set an affordable-housing target of 87,555 homes. Based on units already completed in 2026, buildings under construction and a continuation of HPD’s 2023–2025 production pace, we estimate approximately 66,500 income-restricted completions by 2030, with a range of 64,900 to 74,400.

Seventeen districts meet or exceed their affordable target in our estimate. In 26 districts, expected affordable production is less than one-third of the target.

The comparison has limitations. HPD reports gross units it finances or regulates, while DCP counts net units at first certificate of occupancy. HPD’s published income bands also do not match the strategy’s 60 percent of area median income threshold exactly. The affordable estimate is therefore best read as a directional comparison rather than a precise forecast.

This analysis uses the development activity visible at the end of 2025. Several important developments are not yet fully represented:

• Recently approved rezonings

  OneLIC, Jamaica, Atlantic Avenue, Midtown South and Bronx Metro-North create capacity that does not enter the pipeline until a project is filed.

• City of Yes and 485-x

  Both could increase future filings above the 2023–2025 pace used in the baseline. Their effect will become clearer as additional filing data are released.

• Faster processing

  DOB NOW filings appear to reach permits faster than comparable projects in the legacy filing system. If that translates into faster completions, the baseline may be conservative.

• Dormant projects returning

  More than 40,000 net homes sit in filings with no activity during the last three years. They are excluded under DCP’s inactive-project rule, but some could restart.

• Market conditions

  Interest rates, construction costs, rents, land prices and access to financing will influence which projects move forward and how quickly.

The next DCP Housing Database release will add six months of filings following City of Yes and the implementation of 485-x. We will update the analysis as those data become available.

The Fair Housing Growth Strategy establishes an ambitious direction for housing growth across all 59 community districts. The current pipeline does not yet provide a path to the five-year total.

Some districts already have enough housing in motion. Others have recently approved capacity that could narrow the difference. In many low-growth districts, meeting the target would require production well beyond both the active pipeline and anything achieved in recent five-year periods.

The central question is therefore not whether the targets should be ambitious. It is what combination of new filings, rezonings, conversions, public sites, financing and other interventions would be required to move each district from its current trajectory to its 2030 goal.