Early 485-x data show a sharp divide at 100 units
New registrations cluster at 99 apartments, while few larger projects have entered the program. The pattern raises questions about how 485-x’s requirements are shaping housing production ahead of the 2027 legislative session.
The October 14 release of New York City’s 485-x registrations adds 20 projects with exactly 99 apartments and none with 100 to 104. Across the April and October releases, 49 registered projects have exactly 99 units; none have 100 to 104.
The release adds just one registration for a project with 100 or more apartments, despite a substantial pipeline of larger buildings in Department of Buildings records.
These are early indicators, not a final verdict on the program. They suggest that evaluating 485-x means looking beyond the number of projects registered, to their size, financing, and progress toward construction.
A growing concentration at 99 units
At 100 units, 485-x adds a construction wage requirement and raises the required affordable share. The pattern starts upstream: as of September 20, DOB’s pipeline held 112 unregistered projects with exactly 99 apartments and just one at 100.
Data
| Units | Registrations |
|---|---|
| 95 | 1 |
| 96 | 1 |
| 97 | 0 |
| 98 | 2 |
| 99 | 49 |
| 100 | 0 |
| 101 | 0 |
| 102 | 0 |
| 103 | 0 |
| 104 | 0 |
| 105 | 0 |
Data
| Units | Projects |
|---|---|
| 95 | 5 |
| 96 | 6 |
| 97 | 4 |
| 98 | 15 |
| 99 | 112 |
| 100 | 1 |
| 101 | 0 |
| 102 | 0 |
| 103 | 0 |
| 104 | 0 |
| 105 | 4 |
That concentration is consistent with developers sizing projects to stay below the threshold. It does not, by itself, show how many more apartments those sites could support, or whether different requirements would make larger buildings financially viable. Those are questions for the next phase of analysis.
For policymakers, the question is whether the program helps sites deliver as much housing as they reasonably could, or whether its thresholds encourage smaller projects.
A large construction pipeline does not necessarily mean large 485-x participation
By September, DOB records showed 148 projects with 100 or more units in the pipeline without a 485-x registration. Eighty appeared to have begun construction. That could suggest substantial participation was still to come. A closer review showed why it was unlikely.
We examined 74 of the larger projects under construction and identified 62 that appeared to be financed through other housing programs, intended as condominiums, or otherwise outside the relevant rental housing pipeline. Of those 62, 61 did not appear in the latest registration release.
Data
| Stage | Projects |
|---|---|
| In DOB’s pipeline, unregistered | 148 |
| Under construction | 80 |
| Reviewed: other housing programs | 40 |
| Reviewed: condominiums | 14 |
| Reviewed: outside rental housing | 8 |
| Reviewed: not ruled out | 12 |
| Registered at 100 or more units | 1 |
Size also separates the projects that register. Among projects that began construction between April 1 and September 20, 63% of those at exactly 99 units had registered by September 24, against one of 24 at 100 units or more.
Some of these projects are still inside their six-month registration window.
Data
| Units | Began construction | Registered | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6-29 | 80 | 28 | 35% |
| 30-74 | 43 | 23 | 53% |
| 75-98 | 25 | 10 | 40% |
| 99 | 27 | 17 | 63% |
| 100+ | 24 | 1 | 4% |
Buildings moving through DOB’s pipeline are not, on their own, evidence that 485-x is supporting larger rental projects. Measuring the program’s reach means examining which projects actually intend to use it.
Seeing projects months before HPD publishes them
Latent built a project-level tracking and forecasting model that connects DOB filings and permits with HPD registrations and other public records. In August, it led us to expect only a handful of larger registrations in the next release, not a broad wave. The latest results are consistent with that assessment.
Of the 132 new-building registrations in the latest release, 124 were already in our pipeline. For the typical project, the construction permit we track came about five months before HPD published its registration.
Data
| Months | Registrations |
|---|---|
| 0-2 | 8 |
| 2-4 | 26 |
| 4-6 | 40 |
| 6-8 | 22 |
| 8-10 | 13 |
| 10-12 | 3 |
| 12+ | 8 |
That lead time lets us spot patterns before they appear in HPD’s periodic releases and ask sooner how the program is shaping development decisions. We will keep testing those signals against later registrations and project milestones.
What to watch as Albany considers changes
As the 2027 legislative session approaches, the evidence so far points to three questions:
- Project size
How often are developers limiting proposals to 99 apartments, and how much additional housing might be feasible under a different program structure?
- Larger rental buildings
Which projects with 100 or more units are advancing through 485-x, and what distinguishes them from projects using other financing or failing to proceed?
- Actual delivery
How many registered projects move into sustained construction and ultimately produce completed market-rate and affordable homes?
The current data cannot isolate the effects of 485-x from interest rates, construction costs, rents, and other development conditions. They can point the discussion to specific patterns and projects.
Following the next cohort
Six larger projects that our review could not rule out began construction in late June or July. Their registration deadlines run as late as February 19, 2027, so future releases should show whether they enter the program.
We will keep tracking these projects and the broader pipeline through the legislative session, update this analysis as new records become available, compare the results with our forecasts, and revise our assumptions where the evidence warrants.
Methodology and data limitations
This analysis uses HPD’s 485-x registration file, updated October 14, 2026, covering submissions through September 24. New registrations are submissions after March 31, 2026.
Registrations are counted once per DOB job number and matched to DOB NOW new-building filings and permits. Pipeline figures are as of September 20, 2026. A project counts as started when its first excavation, foundation, structural, or general construction permit is issued. That is a permit-based indicator, not independent verification of work on site.
The review of larger projects draws on press coverage, financing announcements, offering plans, and agency records. The forecast was documented internally on August 18, 2026. Project classifications and forecasts may be revised as more information becomes available.